
by Marco Pondrelli
The feeling one gets listening to the Italian debate is that the Palestinian drama is forgotten. The daily massacres of the Israeli army find an increasingly reduced space in the newspapers, this week Human Rights Watch stated that the total blockade imposed by Israel on the Gaza Strip is an instrument of extermination. If the same condemnation had been pronounced against Russia it would have become central in the Italian political debate, in this case it has passed in silence.
The risk is that Trump’s latest moves, accompanied by a cooling of relations with Netanyahu, risk being misunderstood. Just as many commentators mistakenly thought that Biden represented an obstacle to Netanyahu’s policies, today they are convinced that Trump has become a pacifist. To understand what is happening, we need to understand the strategy of the US Administration. Over the past 30 years, US policy has been based on limited military interventions in certain regions, the strategic objective was to create zones of destabilization. The US was not interested in having a stable and friendly government in Iraq or Afghanistan but simply in creating chaos by preventing those states from being reliable interlocutors, in this perspective terrorism that could strike in the Caucasus, Xinjiang or Syria was a valid ally.
Trump reverses this approach, his goal is to create stability but this stability must be oriented towards defending Washington’s interests. How does this position fit into the concrete reality of the Middle East? The US President’s trip to the Gulf countries helps us understand something. The signals that are arriving indicate that Trump could be in favor of the birth of a Palestinian state but this is not good news. The future state would be ‘residual’, the illegal Israeli colonies would remain excluded, just as the fate of Gaza is unclear. This scenario closely resembles the words that Ariel Sharon addressed to Massimo D’Alema (then Italian Foreign Minister) that the latter reported in his book (Grande è la confusione sotto il cielo) and which is interesting to quote: ‘I met Ariel Sharon during the election campaign that ultimately saw him win. I remember he told me: “We are available to have areas administered by the Palestinians within the borders of Israel and under Israeli military control. There the Palestinians will be able to live and govern themselves”. I replied: “A sort of Bantustan”. Sharon smiled and replied: “If they want, they can call it a state”.
The US Administration would have a Palestine controlled by Israel and hegemonized by the Saudis, this would be a prerequisite for the recognition of Israel and Saudi Arabia. In line with these premises, Trump went to Riyadh where he also met with Qaedist Al Jolani, the new leader of Syria. In Syria, the terrorists won, whom we euphemistically called ‘moderate rebels’, and immediately afterwards the West cancelled the sanctions. Terrorism was and is a fundamental part of US policy.
Support for the Sunni camp is complementary to the attack on Iran and the axis of the Resistance, which has also had dramatic passages such as the bombings on Iranian soil and the attacks on Lebanon. At this moment, Trump feels strong and is convinced that he can make Tehran swallow an agreement that severely limits his role and that of the axis of the Resistance. All this in Washington’s ideas can (or perhaps must) happen without Netanyahu but this does not change the support that the US will continue to provide to Israel. The success of this plan would create a normalized region and would not only close the Palestinian question to the advantage of the Zionist state but would also ensure the revitalization of relations with the Saudis, central to determining the price of oil.
Is this the only chance for peace? Certainly not! If we rewind the tape of history, we can remember that the reopening of diplomatic channels between Iran and Saudi Arabia was made possible thanks to China, which has a role recognized by all parties involved. Iran is increasingly linked to Beijing (and also to Moscow) through the SCO and the BRICS, while Saudi Arabia needs to cooperate with China to enable the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, a central objective of its Vision 2030. This region of the world has often been ahead of its time. A more assertive role for China and Russia in building a multipolar world will also have an impact on the Middle East, and only in this context will the Palestinian question find a real solution.
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