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European elections a new beginning?

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by Marco Pondrelli

Approximately one week after the vote, we can try to venture the first considerations. A premise is needed: the European elections differ from the Politics elections, the turnout this year stops at 56% against 58.8% five years ago, numbers much lower than the Italian elections. This low turnout is one of the elements that in the past has produced surprising results that have not always been maintained over time (just think of the 40% reached by the PD five years ago).

I therefore start from the assumption that the results must be carefully considered, but despite this some considerations can be made.

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Trump and sanctions against Iran, what happens now?

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Demostenes Floros aboutenergy.com

On May 2nd 2019, U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, announced the end of the Iran oil export sanctions waivers. Iran immediately responded setting a 60-days before restarting to increase the uranium enrichment. Waiting for the next OPEC+ meeting on June 30th 2019, what are the most important geopolitical consequences of the Trump’s Administration decision?

Firstly, it is important to analyse the possible countermoves that the Russian Federation could implement, after having become the real balance needle in the oil market, because of the victory in the Syrian war. In order to do it, a step back must be taken. On November 30th 2016, the OPEC+ Group reduced its output by approximately 1,800,000 b/d with the aim of increasing barrel prices at that time under $50/b.

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Trump, China and globalization

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of Lorenzo Battisti (International Department of Italian Communist Party and Pci Paris)

Trump has long been accused of putting an end to the "magical" globalization. In reality, his policies are the result of the new world balances generated by the emergence of the Brics and in particular by the economic and political development of China.

Globalization and neoliberalism: the unipolar phase of imperialism

Much has been written in recent years on globalization, often in a smoky way. The characteristics to describe it have referred to different elements, all partial. Some have taken as reference the openness to trade. Others referred to the freedom of capital to move from one country to another. Still others the diffusion of information due to the new digital technologies that allows to be informed about distant facts in an instant and to create a "global village". All these elements, even though they are part of globalization, do not grasp the root of the phenomenon.

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China in the Driving Seat

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Demostenes Florosaboutenergy.com

Versione in italiano

The new geography of manufacturing. The speed at which China is changing its energy mix, from coal to gas. Europe's response. The interwoven fates of Rome and Beijing over the Belt and Road Initiative. Analysis of a busy month of meetings

In the next few weeks, the U.S. President Donald Trump and the Chinese President Xi Jinping could reach a definitive trade agreement. Italy could also find itself in a position to play some kind of bridging role betweeen Beijing and Washington. On March 22, 2019, the President of the Italian Republic Sergio Mattarella met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, in Rome. 

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European Union and copyright

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by Francesco Galofaro, University of Turin

There is little to be done: the more the mass media try to portray a European Union that is useful and citizen-friendly, the more they are drowning in the objective contradictions of the Community institutions. A good example of this is the approval, on 26 March, of the European directive on copyright by the European Parliament.

As early as last year the danger of the "market gag" to freedom of expression had been postponed because of the obvious, disturbing doubts it raised (see here [1]). Today, the new directive is presented as follows: the EU institutions intervene in defense of small authors against the giants of the web: Google, Facebook, Twitter and so on. In fact, the law concerns publishers, to whom the directive provides tools to negotiate the payment of copyright.

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Italian-Chinese cooperation and the devil's alternative

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Francesco Maringiò

The complex Sino-American trade negotiation is going through a period that is not turbulent but is nevertheless marked by objective difficulties: too much distance separates the American warnings from the concessions that China is willing to make without penalizing its development and it becomes too difficult to contain the impact of the war on 5G (which is part of the negotiation but which also concerns other strategic aspects) in the United States and Europe. However difficult it may be, it cannot be excluded that an agreement is still possible. But there are many economists who observe how the "great deal" would put Europe in check, tightened in an alliance between the two superpowers and unable to carve out a role in international trade.

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Greater Eurasia and the (new) energy routes

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Demostenes Florosaboutenergy.com

Versione in italiano

In recent years, we have witnessed the emergence of a geo-economic center in Eurasia, that is being structured around Russia and China. A new development pole that wants and can become an alternative to the Euro-Atlantic center. Gas is above all.

According to preliminary data provided by Gazprom, in 2018, Russia’s state-own major exported to the European Union plus Turkey 201.8 Gm3 of natural gas (calorific power: 37.053 MJ/m3), that is three times more than the total volume supplied by all LNG producers to Europe. In 2018, “the share of gas supplies to the EU countries and Turkey has reached an all-time high and totaled 36.7%” (34.2% in 2017), stated the director general of Gazprom Export, Elena Burmistrova, at Gazprom’s Investor Day event, which took place in Singapore on February 28th. 

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Oil price rise on Opec-led supply cuts

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Demostenes Florosaboutenergy.com

Versione in italiano

In addition to the OPEC+ deal and the turmoil in the Latin American country, another bullish factor was a slight depreciation of the dollar and the impression that the Federal Reserve will not implement a strong tightening monetary policy in 2019 as it was previously supposed

Oil and currency trends

In January, barrel prices strongly increased, because OPEC+ members have been starting to implement the Vienna agreement reached on November 30th 2018.

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The Bolivarian Revolution is in danger!

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by Marx21.it

A Golpist opposition that does not want to recognize the will of the Venezuelan people proclaims itself government by inviting the armed forces to sedition.

Immediately President Trump recognizes the legitimacy of the coup, threatens Venezuela with intervention and even armed support for the heirs of Pinochet and Videla and calls on all "Western" countries to follow his example. Like one man, all the worst obscurantist regimes in Latin America respond to the call, not least the parafascist regime in Brazil that also emerged from a coup.

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A new recession is looming

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fabbrica abbandonataDemostenes Florosaboutenergy.com

Versione in italiano

To balance the market, global economic powers must implement expansive policies and producer countries must implement the production cuts agreement as soon as possible

During the last month of 2018, oil prices strongly decreased at around $8/b in the wake of the global financial turmoil. In fact, in 2018, the S&P Goldman Sachs energy commodity index decreased by 21%.

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